Calculator · Risk & Psychology

Expectancy Calculator

Plug in your win rate, average winner (in R), and average loser (in R). Returns the expectancy per trade, total expected R and dollars over N trades, the profit factor, and the breakeven win rate at your win/loss ratio. The math that decides whether a 40% win-rate strategy is profitable or a 60% win-rate strategy is bleeding.

Read the lesson: Expectancy and the R-Multiple System

Expectancy

Expectancy Calculator

Plug in your win rate, average winner, and average loser to see what one trade is worth on average - and what 100 of them compound to.

Inputs

Win rate%Most profitable swing strategies sit at 40-55%.Avg winner (in R)RIf you risk 1R and win 2R, enter 2.Avg loser (in R)RUsually 1R if you exit at your stop. Higher if you let stops slip.Number of tradesDollar risk per trade$What 1R costs in dollars. Used to translate R into $.

Result

Expectancy per trade

+0.350R · $87.50

Positive expectancy - keep trading.

Expected over 100 trades

+35.000R · $8,750.00

Profit factor

1.64

Gross winnings ÷ gross losses. Above 1.5 is a real strategy; above 2.0 is exceptional.

Breakeven win rate

33.3%

Win rate needed for zero expectancy at this avg win/loss ratio.

With these inputs you need a 33.3% win rate to break even. You're at 45.0% - edge confirmed.

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